How India and China are looking at Myanmar, an India Japan project in Sri Lanka takes a hit, and a message from the Dalai Lama
Welcome to today's The India China Newsletter.
In this issue, I'm looking at:
- How India and China are reacting to developments in Myanmar
- Sri Lanka deals a blow to a major India-Japan project in Colombo
- The PLA shows off new tanks to be deployed in the border
- A problem of messaging as the Communist Party of China turns 100
- A rare message from the Dalai Lama to India and China in a new book
Jyoti Malhotra writes in The Print today assessing India's response to the on-going crisis and coup in Myanmar:
What happens tomorrow? Delhi is carefully watching, of course, like the rest of the world. Sensibly, India is likely to, once again, refuse to be drawn into either the pro-Aung San Suu Kyi camp – and, therefore, copycat the US school of thought – or go against her. Nothing symbolises this more than the joint visit last October of Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla along with Army chief General M. M. Naravane to Myanmar. It was an unusual visit, with unusual goals and consequences...
New Delhi’s military-diplomatic outreach to Myanmar became a cornerstone of its Act East policy. On the eve of the joint Shringla-Naravane visit in October last year, Myanmar handed over 22 Indian insurgents that had been making trouble from across the border. But the relationship had begun to take off in 2015, in the wake of the bilateral joint commission, when India decided to ramp up the sale of military hardware to Myanmar, including 105 mm light artillery guns, rocket launchers, radars, mortars, naval gunboats and more recently, lightweight torpedoes. New Delhi’s interest in Myanmar came with one eye on China – but it’s more than that.
In short, it might not be a stretch to say it's actually not very different from China's broad reaction, and both countries have, since 2011, been engaging across the spectrum in Myanmar and not shy of doing business with the military. India's response, as I noted in yesterday’s newsletter, did mention its support for Myanmar's democratic transition, something missing in everything China has said so far. Today, China made it clear it would not support external interference. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson had this to say:
We have noted what happened in Myanmar. China is a friendly neighbor of Myanmar. We hope that all parties in Myanmar will properly handle their differences under the constitutional and legal framework and maintain political and social stability. We are in communication with relevant parties of the Security Council on this issue. Whatever actions taken by the international community shall contribute to Myanmar's political and social stability, promote its peace and reconciliation, and avoid escalating the conflict and complicating the situation.
This Xinhua report and headline describing the coup as a "cabinet reshuffle" is one for the ages. It’s been shared widely on social media and is not a great advertisement for China's official news agency, which has been striving (ie, spending lots of $$$) to make inroads in Asia, Africa, and Latin America for supposedly 'unbiased' coverage of world events (they themselves perhaps know claiming 'unbiased' coverage of domestic events will be a hard sell):
Major cabinet reshuffle announced in Myanmar
YANGON, Feb. 1 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar military announced a major cabinet reshuffle hours after a state of emergency was declared on Monday.
Under the cabinet reshuffle, new union ministers were appointed for 11 ministries while 24 deputy ministers were removed from their posts, the military's statement said.
Union Chief Justice and Judges of the Supreme Court of the Union, Chief Justices and Judges of Regional or State High Courts are allowed to remain in office, according to the military's statement.
This was another interesting detail in the Chinese media's coverage, where one analyst was suggesting that the insurrection and attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters inspired Myanmar's generals (Beijing does seem to think everything is Trump's fault so why not add this to the list?). Global Times reports:
Some experts mentioned that former US president Donald Trump, who refused to admit his election defeat and reportedly incited the Capitol riots, might be the Myanmar military's inspiration. Fan Hongwei, director of the Center for Southeast Asia Studies at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Monday that the US may impose sanctions on Myanmar, and military pressure cannot be rolled out.
The Trump administration, while concerned about Vietnam and Malaysia, was not so concerned about Myanmar. During the Obama administration, the US paid great attention to Myanmar based on the US' Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, analysts said.
Yin Yihang told the Global Times that although the US had limited official exchanges with Myanmar during the Trump administration, US civil rights groups have maintained a presence in northern Myanmar, radicalizing local people. "As per the current situation, US may also adopt a 'color revolution' approach to Myanmar," Yin said.
"The situation in Myanmar is likely to be an opportunity for the Biden administration, which has multiple members from Team Obama, to repair relations with Myanmar, to make Myanmar problematic and use Myanmar to put pressure on China," Fan said.
Reuters notes that Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, met with the military leadership three weeks ago:
China’s foreign ministry noted the “fraternal” relationship as State Councillor Wang Yi met last month in Myanmar’s capital with the military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, making him one of the last foreign dignitaries to visit before the coup.
“China appreciates that the Myanmar military takes national revitalisation as its mission,” the Chinese ministry said at the time.
Myanmar’s own readout of the meeting proved more portentous.
It noted that the military raised complaints to Wang about Myanmar’s Nov. 8 election, saying it was marred by fraud, including “discrepancies with the voter lists”, and told him what the army was doing about it, without giving specifics.
The Indian Express explains why Sri Lanka has reneged on a 2019 agreement with India and Japan to develop the strategic East Container Terminal (ECT) at the Colombo Port, which was seen as a major symbolic project and a response to China's economic influence there:
After the Sri Lankan decision reneging on the 2019 agreement, the country’s cabinet has now approved a proposal to develop the west terminal of the Colombo port as a Public Private Partnership with Japan and India. While two top sources in the Sri Lankan government said Indian response to the compensatory offer was “ambiguous” and “almost rejecting,” Indian officials said there was no formal communication
As per the agreement signed by the former Maithripala Sirisena-Ranil Wickremesinghe administration, India and Japan together was to hold 49% stake in ECT. What had finally made the government surrender before trade unions was the increasing support of many more sections in the society for the protests against privatisation.
While there were reports and allegations among diplomatic circle that the Chinese had played a role in instigating port unions protest against India’s interest, some 223 Sri Lankan unions from different walks of life, including trade unions and civil societies groups, declared support for the port trade unions demand to cancel the ECT agreement.
The PLA has commissioned its new Type 15 light tanks, likely to be used on the India border. There is still no sign of disengagement and both sides remain deployed in close proximity in some spots in Ladakh:
The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Xinjiang Military Command recently received delivery of and commissioned its first batch of China's newly developed Type 15 light tanks, which excels at rapid reaction combat in plateau regions, a Chinese expert said on Monday.
With the commissioning, both Xinjiang and Tibet military commands safeguarding China's western borders are now operating these advanced tanks specializing in plateau combat, analysts said.
In January, a regiment attached to the PLA Xinjiang Military Command received the delivery of a batch of Type 15 light tanks while stationed in a plateau region, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Sunday.
Immediately after the commissioning, the regiment sent the tanks to a freezing region at 4,300 meters altitude for adaptation exercises, so they can rapidly form combat capability, CCTV reported.
A smart take on the upcoming 100-year anniversary of the Communist Party of China, to be marked in July with great fanfare, in The Economist's latest Chaguan column:
Jump to 2021, the centenary of the party’s founding, and China’s rulers face a revealingly similar challenge. Once again, they must tell two, contradictory stories about their country and its future. The first will be soothing. After four years of open competition with the Trump administration, involving tariff wars, tit-for-tat visa fights and barriers to trade in sensitive technologies, China would like to call a truce…
In private, Chinese elites insist that Western critics mistakenly view their country as a threat because it is run by a Communist Party. They say the party is more pragmatic than ideological, with a doctrine that resembles a mishmash of nationalism, traditional Chinese culture and a vaguely leftish belief that capitalists, while good at innovation, should pay more heed to the national interest and not flaunt their wealth.
The headache for China’s leaders is that they must tell a different, intensely political, story to domestic audiences, as their party turns 100 in July. To inspire the masses and guide the work of officials, leaders must explain their vaulting ambitions for the country and the centrality of the party to them. They have already begun.
And finally...
The Dalai Lama, who rarely comments on geopolitical matters and particularly those involving India and China, had this to share in his new book, "The Little Book of Encouragement", published on January 25 (and available on Amazon India).
The Press Trust of India reports:
On Sino-India ties, he writes, "India and China have developed a sense of competition in recent times. Both countries have populations of over a billion. Both of them are powerful nations, yet neither can destroy the other; so, they have to live side-by-side."
On the Tibet issue, he writes, "I always tell Tibetans: it is much better to consider the Chinese as our brothers and sisters than to think of them as our enemy - no use in that. For the time being, there is a problem with our Chinese neighbours, but only with a few individuals in the Communist Party. A number of Chinese leaders now realise that their 70-year-old policy regarding Tibet is unrealistic.
There was too much emphasis on the use of force then, he says, adding "So now they are in a dilemma: how to deal with the Tibetan problem? Things seem to be changing."
He goes on to say that his death may well mark the "end of the great tradition of Dalai Lamas"; the word means ''great leader'' in Tibetan. "It may end with this great Lama. The Himalayan Buddhists of Tibet and Mongolia will decide what happens next. They will determine whether the 14th Dalai Lama has been reincarnated in another tulku.”
Thank you for reading.