India's Army Chief speaks on the LAC, a troop reduction on the border, and a return to lockdowns in China
Welcome to today's The India China Newsletter.
India's Army Chief Gen. Manoj Naravane held his annual press conference this morning in Delhi.
Three things he said on the China front caught my attention (from Dinakar Peri’s report in The Hindu, which I recommend reading in full):
- His comments on the origins of the border crisis in May and India's response in August to occupy strategic heights south of Pangong Lake:
We were fully aware of their deployment…but they had a first mover advantage...We had the same advantage in August when we surprised the Chinese despite an eyeball to eyeball confrontation.
- He was more direct than officials usually are on the China-Pakistan threat:
On the threat of a two-front war, he stated that there was no doubt a collusive threat existed. It was very much manifesting on the ground. “There is a growing cooperation between Pakistan and China, both in military and other areas. A two-front situation is something we must be ready to deal with.”
- On a report yesterday of a thinning of 10,000 troops by China from near the border, he suggested it didn't really have much of an impact on friction areas where things remain as they have been over the past few months:
Every summer, for training, a number of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) units come to Tibet and go back. These are well in depth anything from 500-1500 km away from the border. We should not lay too much significance on these comings and goings. But we keep an eye on them as they can be moved to the front in 24-48 hours. There has been no reduction in the friction areas or where we are in eyeball to eyeball situations.
Here is the full report on the press conference in The Hindu.
The news of the 10,000 troop reduction, which made headlines yesterday, is quite interesting. It was first reported by ANI, which called it "a significant development" though its report went on to say this was all happening in depth areas some 150 km from the border.
The South China Morning Post's Minnie Chan reported today that this pullout actually began two weeks ago and suggested the rotation may have been routine, but the fact that it is happening indicated a reduction in threat assessment by military planners in Beijing:
Some of the 10,000 troops are due to return from the high altitudes after more than a year of duty, which is part of scheduled rotations. “The Central Military Commission is sure now that it’s impossible for both sides to fight in such extremely cold weather in the Himalayas.”
The Times of India reports how China has tried to block India assuming leadership positions on certain counterterrorism-related UNSC committees, including the Al Qaida sanctions committee that has been key to listing Pakistani terrorists in the past.
The FT has a really great piece with some neat graphics explaining Alibaba's recent troubles with regulators which has driven all the Jack Ma speculation. I'd agree that this potential outcome could turn out to be a likely scenario:
Yet there is another potential outcome that would indicate a less fraught relationship between the party-state and business. The investigations into Ant and Alibaba could lead to the sort of settlements that are not dissimilar to those pursued in the US and EU against large finance and technology groups. That would leave Mr Ma’s two flagship companies humbled but still formidable and highly profitable national champions. Even then, a strong political message would have been sent.
On a related note, The Economist looks at how the Alibaba anti-trust investigation as well as the new Ministry of Commerce rules that I mentioned in yesterday's newsletter to hit back at U.S. sanctions show an "increasingly muscular" approach to businesses from the Communist Party.
And finally....
Three cities in Hebei are now under tight lockdowns. Some 5 million people in Langfang, which is right across the provincial border from Beijing, were the latest to be placed under restrictions after 103 cases were reported on Monday and 55 today. These may seem small numbers to most of us but in China that has meant mass testing of cities.
The provincial capital, Shijiazhuang, also in lockdown, plans to test all 11 million residents. That cases are surfacing in China, which has broadly curbed the spread since the summer, is sobering for the rest of us. The cases also threaten to mess up the plans of millions of people who were, after the most trying of years, looking forward to going home end of this month for next month's Lunar New Year holdiay. Some 407 million train journeys are expected to be taken between January 28 and March 8, and authorities are discouraging people from travelling.
I tweeted these two videos today that give us a sense of the scale of how China is now looking to deal with the latest flare-up of cases. The first shows people lining up in the Beijing suburb of Songzhuang, popular among artists, to get free tests, which are needed if they plan to travel home.
The second shows a mass relocation of 20,000 residents in Hebei villages to centralised quarantine. Needless to say, the residents will not have any choice in the matter.
There is no doubt lots to learn from what China has done right since the summer to keep the outbreak in check -- universal mask use, the way they've ramped up testing capacities, and the public’s high degree of awareness (oh so important!) would probably be top of the list -- but this also reminds us that some of their sweeping measures such as the mass central quarantines perhaps won't fly in much of the rest of the world. And all of this, remember, because there were 265 cases reported in Hebei over the past week. I’d doubt the numbers are far higher than that as the mass testing will probably bear out.
Thank you for reading.
Thank you!