No breakthrough in LAC talks, India honours Galwan braves, Xi's Davos speech, and vaccine competition
Welcome to today's The India China Newsletter and greetings on India’s Republic Day.
A joint statement released yesterday evening on Sunday’s military talks between India and China struck a cautiously positive note but without any signs of agreement yet on disengagement after the months of continuing tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Here is what the statement said:
On January 24, the 9th round of China-India Corps Commander Level Meeting was held on the Chinese side of the Moldo-Chushul border meeting point. The two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on disengagement along the Line of Actual Control in the Western Sector of China-India border areas.
The two sides agreed that this round of meeting was positive, practical and constructive, which further enhanced mutual trust and understanding. The two sides agreed to push for an early disengagement of the frontline troops. They also agreed to follow the important consensus of their state leaders, maintain the good momentum of dialogue and negotiation, and hold the 10th round of the Corps Commander Level Meeting at an early date to jointly advance de-escalation.
The two sides agreed to continue their effective efforts in ensuring the restraint of the frontline troops, stabilize and control the situation along the LAC in the Western Sector of the China-India border, and jointly maintain peace and tranquility.
The reference to “this round of meeting was positive” was new (and leaves one wondering how the past 8 rounds were).
The Global Times quoted experts saying a breakthrough isn’t on the cards:
Despite the positivity shown by the meeting, with no significant breakthroughs achieved, Chinese experts expect continued, prolonged negotiations heading into spring, when warm weather could again promote military activities, and the face-off will likely continue
Veteran South Asia scholar Zhao Gancheng had this to say:
India wrongly believes that China is "encroaching" on its territory. On this premise, it creates lies and then makes its people believe the lies, and it incites hatred. Bilateral negotiations are likely stuck at a point where India has made tough and unreasonable demands, Zhao said.
"China always insists on a peaceful solution, but this cannot be accomplished by the will of one side alone... India should understand that in case of war, it will not be able to take any advantage," Zhao Lijian noted.
"India's policy is like walking a tightrope, pushing to the limit like Donald Trump," Zhao Gancheng said. "But if it doesn't work, they may back down."
An interesting piece from Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (Retd) on the LAC situation after the 9th round of talks (you can read it in full here):
The marathon 9th Corps Commanders level talk between Indian army and PLA at Moldo are indicative of two equals negotiating from a position of strength, both unwilling to either blink or resort to any brinkmanship.
The talks were never expected to resolve the nine-month-old standoff along the LAC, initiated by China as part of its strategy of ‘Military Coercion’. India’s aims and intent is clear, one not to escalate the present sensitive situation and two seek an honourable solution in the near to mid-term based on the principle of mutual and equitable security, translated it implies a ‘Status Quo Ante’. China on the other hand would possibly be seeking a favourable face-saving exit, as it may have bitten more than it can chew.
Both the Indian Army and PLA are deployed and prepared for the long haul, and hence no one really expected a resolution. The fact that the talks continue is a positive, despite the recent report of PLA transgressions on 20th January leading to a clash at Nakula, Sikkim, which is being attributed as minor and due to local dynamics by both the ADGPI and Global Times. As the two statements downplay the patrol clash, it is again indicative of an intent to resolve issues by dialogue. Both sides avoid unnecessary friction in additional areas.
The always insightful Pranab Samanta writes in the Economic Times why the China border crisis must prompt a rethink in the way India spends its defence budget:
It appears that China not only decided to deploy its troops through the winter months in Ladakh, but also maintained similar deployments across Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Bhutan (Dokalam plateau) and other areas in the Eastern sector. As a result, Indian troops have also been on the edge, prompting the description, ‘Siachenisation of the LoAC’, in some circles. Militarily, this sort of a term may appear excessive. But what it essentially means is that there will be longer high altitude troop deployment resulting in increased costs, which will tug on GoI’s limited resources. That is a cost China has imposed on India, just as it has done on almost all its neighbours from Japan, Taiwan and Korea to smaller countries in the South China Sea like Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and beyond.
In this backdrop, and given India’s own limited resources, it’s important for GoI to adopt a broader understanding of security while making important financial commitments. It would be a folly to view the defence budget only in terms of equipment purchases. Just as it would be wrong to think of defending the inhospitable swathes of the LoAC by permanently posting troops there like in Siachen.
For starters, higher military spending must not lead to more off-the-shelf weapons purchases. It should be aimed at creating a strong defence-industry complex because that’s not just good for the economy, but also better counter to China. In other words, a military-industry complex is a security statement in itself, perhaps more effective than equipping the military with imported weapons that have no production lines in India.
Colonel B. Santosh Babu, Commanding Officer of 16 Bihar who lost his life along with 19 others in the June 15 clash in Galwan Valley, has been posthumously awarded the Maha Vir Chakra, the second highest war time gallantry award. Five other personnel deployed there, four posthumously, have been awarded the Vir Chakra — the third highest award. The Hindu has details on the honours announced on the eve of Republic Day.
India Today notes the award citation has details on what transpired in Galwan Valley:
In the citation released in this regard by the Centre on Monday, the Defence Ministry seems to have issued the first detailed account of the Galwan Valley violence.
"Col Santosh Babu was deployed in Galwan Valley (eastern Ladakh) during Operation SNOW LEOPARD, and was tasked to establish an Observation Post in the face of the enemy," the citation said.
It went on to add, "Organising and briefing his troops about the situation with a sound plan, Col Babu successfully executed the task. While holding the position, his column faced stiff resistance from the adversary who attacked using lethal and sharp weapons along with heavy stone pelting from adjoining heights."
"Undaunted by the violent and aggressive action by overwhelming strength of enemy soldiers, the officer in true spirit of service before self, continued to resist the enemy's attempt to pushback Indian troops," the citation said.
Referring to the exemplary display of bravery by Col Babu, the citation adds, "Despite being grievously injured, Colonel Bikumalla Santosh Babu led from the front with absolute command and control despite hostile conditions to deter the vicious enemy attack at his position. In the skirmish that broke out and ensuing hand to hand combat with enemy soldiers, he valiantly resisted the enemy attack till his last breath, inspiring and motivating his troops to hold ground."
Xi Jinping reprised his role as Davos Man and defender of globalisation albeit in a starkly different world from his previous speech. You can read the full text here.
Two calls from Xi that I thought I’d flag. The first hits out at “building small circles” and the second point sounds like a clear call, perhaps in response to the line taken by the Trump administration, that attacking China’s political system and the Party is, in his view, non-negotiable and the world must accept China’s system for what it is:
First, we should stay committed to openness and inclusivenessinstead of closeness and exclusion. Multilateralism is about having international affairs addressed through consultation and the future of the world decided by everyone working together. To build small circles orstart a new Cold War, to reject, threaten or intimidate others, to willfully impose decoupling, supply disruption or sanctions, and to create isolation or estrangement will only push the world into division and even confrontation. We cannot tackle common challenges in a divided world,and confrontation will lead us to a dead end. Humanity has learned lessons the hard way, and that history is not long gone. We must not return to the path of the past.
The second is to abandon ideological prejudice and jointly follow a path of peaceful coexistence, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation. No two leaves in the world are identical, and no histories, cultures or social systems are the same. Each country is unique with its own history, culture and social system, and none is superior to the other. The best criteria are whether a country’s history, culture and social system fit its particular situation, enjoy people’s support, serve to deliver political stability, social progress and better lives, and contribute to human progress. The different histories, cultures and social systems are as old as human societies, and they are the inherent features of human civilization. There will be no human civilization without diversity, and such diversity will continue to exist for as long as we can imagine. Difference in itself is no cause for alarm. What does ring the alarm is arrogance, prejudice and hatred; it is the attempt to impose hierarchy on human civilization or to force one’s own history, culture and social system upon others. The right choice is for countries to pursue peaceful coexistence based on mutual respect and on expanding common ground while shelving differences, and to promote exchanges and mutual learning. This is the way to add impetus to the progress of human civilization.
The Wall Street Journal on the message for Biden from the Davos speech:
His comments—from his office desk placed in front of a rendering of the Great Wall, designed to deter foreign invasions—came days after President Biden took office in the U.S. The Chinese president said Beijing would continue to open its economy and honor its global commitments, but emphasized that each country had a right to blaze its own path.
In urging multilateral engagement to discuss disagreements, Mr. Xi offered no initiatives to address Western criticisms of Chinese policies in such areas as trade, human rights and the military. Anger simmers in many capitals over China’s lack of transparency over the coronavirus outbreak since it first appeared in Wuhan and the government’s refusal to address scientific questions about the efficacy of its vaccine program.
Mr. Xi said China continued to aid other countries in a collective global Covid-19 fight and expressed confidence humanity would prevail over the virus, saying, “Winter cannot stop the arrival of spring.” Yet he also warned, “It serves no one’s interest to use the pandemic as an excuse to reverse globalization and go for seclusion and decoupling.” His emphasis on warning against action by “one or the few” comes as Mr. Biden’s team is looking for ways to rebuild American alliances that were tested during the Trump administration.
Sutirtho Patranobis of the Hindustan Times writes that while China is calling for countries to avoid “vaccine competition” it is, at the same time, using its “tightly controlled state media is simultaneously running a smear campaign against both Indian and western vaccines”.
An exchange between the Global Times and the Foreign Ministry spokesperson on this topic:
Global Times: Sources from the Indian government said that India will send 10 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to South Asian neighbors in the next few weeks, in a move to "rival" China's "vaccine diplomacy", as commented by the media. What is your comment?
Zhao Lijian: Virus is an enemy to all mankind. The most pressing task for the international community at the moment is to make united efforts to fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines should be made a global public good. There are multiple COVID-19 vaccine candidates out there on the market, and countries should be able to make their choices on the vaccines independently. This issue can afford no place for malign competition, let alone the so-called "rivalry". We hope and welcome that more doses of safe and effective vaccines will be manufactured at a faster pace by more countries and then provided to more countries to benefit more people.
China is taking solid steps to act on the pledge of "making COVID-19 vaccines a public good". China has been cooperating on this front with other countries, especially developing countries, in various means, and has provided support and assistance in accordance with their needs to the best of our ability. We will continue to promote equitable distribution and application of the vaccines worldwide, so that the benefits can be enjoyed by more people.
The Global Times also had this to say today:
In the eyes of some, India's vaccine exports is being politicized in an attempt to balance China's growing influence in the region, while more people see this as a scheme played by the Western media who aspire to continue to assault China, which will do more harm than good to the international community in defeating the pandemic. No matter India, China or other Western countries, as long as they can fill the demand gap by making use of their capital, technology and production advantages, it is a laudable act of kindness.
But still, during the supplying process, India will need to demonstrate its capability of ensuring the quality of its vaccine production and delivery, especially after a recent fire at the Serum Institute of India raised questions about the disruptions to its vaccine manufacturing. Moreover, ensuring the vaccine's cold-chain transportation will also pose challenges to India's logistical system.
India has always had the dream of raising its global profile by becoming a major regional economic power leading neighboring countries. That ambition will be realized at the price of shouldering the responsibilities for the region. In the case of the global pandemic, providing as much help as possible to the regional countries is an apparent manifestation of the responsibility of a regional power. But the premise of all these is to ensure the quality of production and logistics.
In this sense, it is essential for India to fully exploit the potential of cooperation in the industrial chain of supplying the vaccines to improve efficiency and quality in a more economical way. Whether in terms of cold-chain logistical facilities or raw materials for production, there is room for cooperation between China and India.
China has always been willing to support other developing countries within its capacity when it comes to vaccine distribution. And we hope India can abandon the "vaccine diplomacy" mindset to make joint efforts to provide more vaccines to people in less-developed countries who are facing scourge of the virus.
An UNCTAD report says India and China have bucked the trend of falling FDI in 2020:
The UN has noted that India and China have largely bucked the worldwide trend of falling foreign direct investment (FDI) during the pandemic period. India, a major emerging economy, recorded positive growth of 13% in FDI, boosted by investments in the digital sector, according to the UNCTAD Investment Trends Monitor. Overall, global FDI collapsed in 2020, falling 42% from $1.5 trillion in 2019 to an estimated $859 billion. China was the world’s largest FDI recipient, with flows rising by 4% to $163 billion due to increased activity in high-tech industries, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, mostly in ICT and pharma.
And finally….
May be of interest to readers: The annual All India Conference of China Studies (AICCS) begins Thursday morning with the theme “China at the Crossroads: New Directions in Politics, Environment and Economy”. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will speak to kick it off. Details here.
Thank you for reading.