What India and China Agreed and Diverged On When Jaishankar Met Wang Yi

The readouts that came out yesterday, November 19, following the meeting between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Rio, are worth studying as a useful snapshot of where India-China ties are at the moment, a month after the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan - which was their first formal meeting in 5 years.

This issue has quick look at the readouts side by side. You can click the headline to read in your browser.

In a recent issue of this newsletter, I did mention the word "reset" should be retired as far as India and China are concerned. Jaishankar was asked if this was indeed a "reset" at the recent Hindustan Times summit. He said: “It’s a reasonable supposition that there will be some improvement in the ties” after the October 21 disengagement agreement. When it was put to him if this could be labelled a reset, he said “Perhaps the current situation doesn’t necessarily warrant that at this time.”

On to the readouts. You can find India's readout here and a Xinhua English summary - but not full translation - of the Chinese readout here.

To begin with, how India described where relations are at the moment:

The Ministers recognized that the disengagement in our border areas had contributed to the maintenance of peace and tranquility. The discussions focused on the next steps in India-China relations. It was agreed that a meeting of the Special Representatives and of the Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism will take place soon.

China's readout began thus:

Wang Yi said President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a successful meeting in Kazan recently, and China-India relations have been restarted and re-launched, which is in line with the fundamental interests of the two peoples, the expectations of countries in the global South, and the right direction of history.

COMMENT: India is directly linking the next steps to the situation at the borders, which China isn't. China is calling it a restart and relaunch. Delhi is more circumspect.

The Chinese readout continues:

The two sides should implement the important consensus of the leaders, respect each other's core interests, enhance mutual trust through dialogue and communication, handle differences with sincerity and honesty, and push for an early return to the track of stable and healthy development of relations between the two countries. We should send more positive signals and do more things conducive to the interaction between the two countries; enhance mutual trust and reduce suspicion; and carry out more cooperation and less consuming each other.

COMMENT: "Handle differences with sincerity and honesty" -- a reflection of displeasure at the recent state of ties?

Both readouts had some common ground on the next steps.

India: Among the steps discussed were the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage, data sharing on trans-border rivers, direct flights between India and China and media exchanges.

China:  We should strive to make practical progress as soon as possible in the resumption of direct flights, mutual assignment of journalists and visa facilitation. Next year will mark the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India, and the two sides should plan commemorative activities and encourage exchanges and visits in all fields and at all levels to enhance understanding and mutual trust.

COMMENT: Resumption of direct flights and media exchanges, if it materializes, are both very welcome developments.

On flights - about time. The only main impact of the suspension of direct flights was probably increased business for Cathay Pacific which has added flights to Delhi and restarted its Chennai flights too. China Southern and Air China could restart their flights to Delhi and Mumbai, while India's Indigo is reportedly considering a first direct flight to China.

On media exchanges: also about time! At the moment, there are no Chinese reporters in Delhi and one Indian reporter in Beijing. I've always maintained that the work of journalists should be completely insulated from whatever happens in bilateral relations. I disagreed with India's expulsions of Chinese reporters and Beijing's response to do the same. I've never seen a fully clear explanation either, of how reporters got drawn into worsening relations - the visa problem pre-dated the boundary crisis that began in 2020 when India started giving Chinese reporters 3 month visas.  I'll say briefly here that I don't think whether reporters work for State media (Indian or Chinese) is relevant though that's a longer and more nuanced discussion to be had another time. What I do think is the worse relations get, the stronger the argument is to have reporters on the ground, whether they work for state media or otherwise. At its peak, there were 14 Chinese reporters in India and 6 Indian reporters in Beijing. Expect the new arrangement to have reciprocity.
 
There were some differences on the next steps: China doesn't mention the Kailash yatra and data-sharing. India doesn't mention the 75th anniversary next year being marked.

On the global situation:

The MEA statement said Jaishankar "noted that India and China have both differences and convergences. We have worked constructively in the BRICS and the SCO framework. Our cooperation in the G20 has also been evident."

Wang on the other hand "pointed out that as two large developing countries in close proximity to each other, China and India's common interests far outweigh their differences, and the two sides should regard each other's development as an opportunity and join hands to realize common development and revitalization, which is conducive to safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries and promoting the process of world multi-polarity."

On multipolarity, Jaishankar said India is "strongly committed to a multipolar world, including a multipolar Asia." 

He added: "Where India is concerned, its foreign policy has been principled and consistent, marked by independent thought and action. We are against unilateral approaches to establish dominance. India does not view its relationships through the prism of other nations."

COMMENT: It's hard not to see the pointed mention of a multipolar Asia, and viewing relations through prism of other nations, as being directed at China. The view in Delhi is Beijing is increasingly looking at its ties with India through the context of its relations with Washington, and thus misreading India's interests and actions by doing so.

The Chinese statement, on the other hand, sought to portray both as being on the same page, with Wang noting that "China and India are pursuing a non-aligned foreign policy, adhere to multilateralism, support the democratization of international relations, and should continue to strengthen coordination and cooperation in international affairs, and promote greater development of the BRICS mechanism and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization."

The Chinese statement concluded by quoting Jaishankar as saying "Consensus between India and China far outweighs differences, and both sides should take a strategic view of bilateral relations, handle relevant issues in a more positive manner, and not allow specific differences to define the relationship between the two countries. India is willing to take the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries next year as an opportunity to promote the forward development of India-China relations...... India also opposes unilateralism, does not favour military alliances, advocates democratization of international relations, and is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with China in multilateral mechanisms such as the Group of Twenty (G-20) and the BRICS."

COMMENT: You will note some of this wasn't mentioned in India's statement. As a rule in parsing these statements, my view is you're better off following what one side has to say about its own views than giving too much weight to the other side's characterisation of said views.

THE BIGGER PICTURE: These points aside, perhaps most importantly, both agreed on the need for next steps - and, in my view, agreed therefore to keep the momentum going as they look to rebuild relations (rebuild - not reset!).

It would be interesting to see when the Special Representatives, Ajit Doval and Wang Yi, meet next. The last formal meeting, the 22nd meeting of the SRs, was held in Delhi in December 2019. As is the practice, the next was scheduled to be held in Beijing, but never happened after the pandemic began and then the LAC crisis erupted. A visit by Ajit Doval to Beijing would be the clearest indicator of a resumption of high-level contact -- and more importantly, of perhaps the most valuable platform there is for both sides to have a clear exchange of views, not only about bilateral ties but how they view the state of the world, amid the lingering cloud of distrust.

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